Service Plays Friday 05/15/09

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 14, 2009

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Magic (-7) last night.

Today it's the Rockies. The surplus is 730 sirignanos.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

Hondo

May 15, 2009

The impurrfect Tigers gave up a late 5-run lead yesterday in Minnesota, choking like a kitten on a fur ball and causing Hondo to cough up some of his hard-earned disposable income.

Today, with 220 brobergs in hand, he'll tap into the Brewers' hot streak with a 10-unit Gallardo play.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

Jim Feist Bonus Play

(955) COLORADO ROCKIES
(956) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take "(956) PITTSBURGH PIRATES"

Colorado struggled away from home (6-10) and their pitching has been the big culprit. Starter Jorge De La Rosa has a good ERA at present, but he's walking too many batters (16 in 35 innings). Pittsburgh has a winning record at home and they showed it again this week, returning from a miserable road trip to smack the Cardinals around. Lefty starter Paul Maholm has been very reliable and is 3-1 on the year. A good spot for the home team. Play the Pirates.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

Dave Cokin Bonus Play

(975) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
(976) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "(976) TEXAS RANGERS"

Joe Saunders has been money in the bank on the road for the Angels. He's now an amazing 20-6 for his career away from home. Yet he's 0-3 at tonight's site as the Rangers have crushed him here. Texas is on a major roll right now and Kevin Millwood is pitching steady ball. Millwood is pitching more to contact than he has in the past and it's paying off. In fact, the entire Texas staff is vastly improved thanks to the arrival of guru Mike Maddux. This is a very big series for the Rangers and I think they're worth backing in the opener tonight.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND BOLD AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )

CINCINNATI (HARANG) -120 (1)
San Diego (Correia)

White Sox (Danks)
TORONTO (CECIL) -115 (2)

Arizona (Davis)
ATLANTA (VAZQUEZ) -170 (3)

TheIronHorse · May 15, 2009

DailyPowerRatings

<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="96%"><tbody><tr><td></td> <td align="right" valign="top" width="32%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="freepickwhite" width="68%">DailyPowerRatings </td> <td rowspan="4" align="right" valign="top" width="32%">

</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="freepickwhite1">Friday, May 15th</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5* Star - 6+ Run Differential (Highest-Rated 3 Unit Play)
4* Star - 5 Run Differential (2 Unit Play)
3* Star - 4 Run Differential (1 Unit Play)
2* Star - 2 to 3 Run Differential (Slight Edge)
1* Star - 0 to 1 Run Differential (No Play Recommended) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td align="right" valign="top" width="32%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="26%" height="30">Team
(Game*)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="23%">Game Rating
(Point Differential)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="10%">Vegas
Line </td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="9%">Our
Line</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="8%">Power
Rating</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="8%">Starting Pitcher</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="9%">Home/
Away</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (979) Boston</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#dc0100">3* Star </td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-160</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (980) Seattle</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">150</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="7" class="brdbot" bgcolor="#e6e6e6" height="6"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="freepickwhite1">Today's Play:</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">3* Boston (-160) 1 Unit Play</td></tr></tbody></table>

fly73 · May 15, 2009

Cappers Access

Cubs
Rangers

fly73 · May 15, 2009

Fred Wallin's Friday Total's Winner
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays (May 15 7:35 PM)
Over 9.0 (-125.0)
A bad week for ex Trojans as Reyes is capable of giving up nine runs by himself. Kazmir's ERA is almost 6.00

Over over over

fly73 · May 15, 2009

Today's MLB Picks

Chicago White Sox at Toronto

The White Sox look to build on their 4-1 record in John Danks' last 5 starts as a road underdog. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 15
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 16.024; Cubs (Wells) 14.984
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+160); N/A
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.497; Washington (Lannan) 14.314
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over
Game 955-956: Colorado at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 12.876; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Stults) 14.811; Florida (Volstad) 15.147
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under
Game 959-960: Arizona at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.955; Atlanta (Vazquez) 16.142
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.159; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.401
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.388; San Diego (Correia) 14.771
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.714; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.824
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Under
Game 967-968: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.734; NY Yankees (Hughes) 17.117
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Under
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.852; Toronto (Cecil) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Over
Game 971-972: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.425; Detroit (Jackson) 15.851
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Reyes) 14.605; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 15.795
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 17.738; Texas (Millwood) 16.323
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Under
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Eaton) 14.505; Kansas City (Greinke) 15.431
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-205); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-205); Under
Game 979-980: Boston at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.692; Seattle (Jakubauskus) 15.660
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under

Sportsman076 · May 15, 2009

On Saturday, our wagers include two bets on Friesan Fire to Win and to Place, and an Exacta Box on Friesan Fire and Rachel Alexandra.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

chuba · May 15, 2009

steve merrill (my last day with the package, thinking i will renew but dunno as of now)

5 units dodgers under
5 ubits angels under
5 units reds

gl

fly73 · May 15, 2009

Jimmy The Moose

The Phillies have struggled of late but tonight they start a series vs. a Washington team they play well against. Philadelphia is on the road where they have played very well this season. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 11 road games. Philadelphia also has won 10 of Blanton's last 13 starts. The Nationals are 11-21 on the year. Washington sends Lannan to the mound and the Nationals have lost his last 4 starts vs. Philadelphia. The Nationals are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings. Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last 10 trips to Washington. Play on the Philadelphia Phillies

fly73 · May 15, 2009

Frank Sawyer

Pitching Surprise Play

At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan. The Phillies enter this series 16-16 overall after dropping a disappointing 5-3 ten inning affair with the Dodgers Thursday night. They meet a Nationals club that is 11-21 on the season. The Phillies will send out the right-handed veteran, Joe Blanton, to the mound. Blanton has posted some ugly numbers so far this season. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.60. Blanton had two outings in April where he could not get out of the 5th inning while allowing seven and six earned runs respectively. However, a look beyond these frontline numbers into some deeper sabermetric statistics suggests that Blanton should be achieving better results. A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where the balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is .290. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to have this number lower. Blanton currently has a BABIP of .343 this season which is high and "unlucky." What this tells us is that Blanton has been unfortunate in that many of the balls he has allowed in play are not being hit towards Philly fielders. He should not to expect that trend to continue since that is a bit a function of luck regarding where the defense happens to be positioned -- which, of course, will then decrease the number of hits he allows as well as then the number of runs he allows. Additionally, the Phillies lead the majors with just eight errors on the season. As time goes by, Blanton will benefit from these balls being hit towards the capable Philly fielders that back him up. Blanton's last two outings suggest he his already turning around his early season difficulties. On May 4th, he pitched six innings and allowed just one run on just four hits in a win at St. Louis. Then on May 9th, while giving up six runs in eight innings against the Braves, two of those runs came on an 8th inning homer he allowed. We are encouraged by the fact that he had five strikeouts with just one walk in that game. Furthermore, he averaged just 13.8 pitches per inning in that outing which suggests that, for much of the game, he was dominant. He compiled 110 pitches which were the most he has accumulated in one game all season -- which explains why stayed in the game through the eighth inning. Blanton is a solid strikeout pitcher. He averages 7.2 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.8:1 Strikeout pitchers with good control are the ones most likely to pitch themselves out of slumps. Not only can strikeout pitchers get themselves out of jams with their "stuff," but the credible threat of striking out a hitter compels batters to swing earlier in the count. When combined with a low-walk rate, strikeout pitchers gain control of the "chess match" between hitters and pitchers. This is a recipe for long term success. The veteran Blanton certainly has the repertoire to pitch well. In the second half of last season (when he was traded to the Phillies), Blanton was 4-0 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a very nice low opponent's batting average of just .251. He struck out 52 batters in 76 1/3 innings during that stretch. Blanton has also pitched much better away from Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park this season. On the road in two '09 starts, Blanton has a 1-1 record with a 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .250 in twelve innings. Given these peripheral numbers, we expect a strong performance "surprise" out of the Phillies' starter tonight.

The Nationals send out their ace, John Lannan, with his 2-3 record along with a 3.89 ERA. Lannan does have a high opponent's batting average of .282 along with a worrisome WHIP of 1.50 this season. Lannan is not a strikeout pitcher as he averages just 4.53 Ks per nine innings. Additionally, his K-to-Walk ration is 1.3:1 which is not very impressive since for every four strikeouts, Lannan averages three walks. In 2008, Lannan was 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA overall -- but his numbers at home were noticeably worse as he was just 4-9 with a 4.89 ERA. And, Lannan struggled against the Phillies last year as he was 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of a whopping .323 in 16 2/3 innings. Both of these offenses are good; the Nationals average 5.15 runs per game while the Phillies score 5.52 runs per game -- ranking 9th and 5th in the majors respectively. However, the Phillies averaged 4.94 runs per game last season to just the 3.98 average of the Nationals. Over the long run, the Philly crew of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino should out-hit Ryan Zimmerman and Co. this season. If this game goes to the bullpens, the Phillies should have the advantage as the Nationals have an extremely shaky bullpen; collectively, their pen has an ERA of 6.31 with a WHIP of 1.75 and over the last 22 1/2 innings their bullpen ERA jumps to 8.06.

Overall, Philadelphia is an excellent position to win the opening game of this series. Washington is just 16-37 over their last 53 games. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last eight meetings with the Nationals and 7-3 in their last ten games in Washington. Philly is 8-3 in their last eleven games on the road. And, the Phillies are 10-3 in their last thirteen games in games where Blanton starts. Furthermore, Washington is 10-45 versus the money line (-30.8 units) after four or more games on the road over the last two seasons. Finally, there is a strong 85% system against the money line (33-6 since 1997, +25.2 units) that looks to play on National League road favorites of at least -110 if they are sending a starting pitcher who has a WHIP between 1.55-1.65 while sporting a lineup that averages at least 3.5 extra-base hits a game. The defending National League Champions should knock around the Nationals' Lannan while their starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, should be primed to "surprise" with an excellent pitching performance. MLB Hollywood Insider Starting Pitcher Surprise on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan.

fly73 · May 15, 2009

INSIDE THE LINES

FRIDAY, MAY 15

Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays

Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee (21-14) at St. Louis (21-14)

The surging Brewers gun for their fourth consecutive victory when they send ace Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) to the mound as the top two teams in the N.L. Central begin a three-game weekend series at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee ended a six-game homestand with Thursday’s 5-3 victory over the Marlins to complete a three-game series sweep. The Brewers are on runs of 17-5 overall (9-2 last 11), 7-2 on the road, 8-2 against N.L. Central foes, 7-0 in series openers, 10-2 versus teams with a winning record and 7-1 against right-handed starters.

Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) takes the ball for the Cardinals, who capped a six-game road trip Thursday with a 5-1 win at Pittsburgh. St. Louis has still dropped four of its last six overall – all divisional contests – and it is 3-6 in its last nine against right-handed starters. On the positive side, Tony LaRussa is on runs of 21-8 at home and 5-2 on Friday.

The Brewers won seven of the last eight meetings with the Cardinals last season, including six of the last seven at Busch Stadium.

Milwaukee is 4-0 in Gallardo’s last four trips to the mound – all against N.L. East foes – with the right-hander going 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA, including Saturday’s 12-6 home victory over the Cubs when he gave up two runs in five innings. Gallardo is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four road starts this season.

Lohse got torched in his last two trips to the mound, allowing a combined 13 runs (all earned) on 16 hits in 10 1/3 innings (10.97 ERA), losing 6-1 at home to the Phillies and 8-3 at Cincinnati. The Cardinals have lost three straight games and four of five with Lohse on the hill. However, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts at home and the Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six at Busch Stadium.

In two career starts against St. Louis – both in 2007 – Gallardo gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings (9.28 ERA), and Milwaukee lost both games (one at home, one on the road). Meanwhile, Lohse faced the Brewers three times last year and gave up nine runs in 19 innings (4.26 ERA), but St. Louis lost all three games by a total of four runs.

The under is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these division rivals and 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in St. Louis. Also, the Cardinals stayed under the total in all three games at Pittsburgh, and the under is 12-4 in Gallardo’s last 16 starts overall, 10-1 in his last 11 starts on the road and 6-0 in Milwaukee’s last six Friday contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and UNDER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (18-15) at Texas (20-14)

The first-place Rangers welcome the Angels to Rangers Ballpark for a weekend series, with Kevin Millwood (3-3, 2.92) slated to toe the slab in the opener. Texas is coming off consecutive walk-off home wins over the Mariners, including Thursday’s 3-2 victory, a game in which the Rangers trailed 2-0 going into the bottom of the ninth. Texas has surged to the top of the A.L. West standings by winning four in a row and 10 of 12, going 5-0 at home during this stretch. It is also on runs of 6-1 against A.L. West rivals, 4-1 versus lefty starters and 4-0 in series openers.

The Angels hit the road after ending an eight-game homestand with Thursday’s 5-4, 12-inning victory over Boston, and they’ll turn to southpaw Joe Saunders (5-1, 2.66) in this contest. Like Texas, Los Angeles is also playing solid ball, going 9-2 in its last 11 games, including three straight road wins, and it is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handed starters.

Los Angeles cruised to the A.L. West title last year thanks in part to dominating Texas, winning 12 of 19 meetings, including eight of the final 11. Also, the visitor went 12-7 in this rivalry in 2008, including 6-1 in the last seven.

Saunders is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts, allowing a total of six runs (four earned) in 21 2/3 innings. That includes Saturday’s 1-0, complete-game home victory over Zack Greinke and the Royals. With Saunders pitching, the Halos are on a slew of impressive streaks, including 43-17 overall, 22-7 on the road, 10-3 on Friday, 6-0 against A.L. West foes, 20-4 in series openers and 21-7 versus teams with a winning record.

This season, Saunders is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in three road starts. He’s also 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA in seven career starts against Texas, but 0-3 with a 9.77 ERA in three outings at Rangers Ballpark.

Millwood gave up three runs over seven innings in Saturday’s start at the White Sox, losing 3-2. The veteran right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season, and he’s surrendered a total of five earned runs in 24 innings in three home starts, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA. Texas is 19-8 in Millwood’s last 27 starts at Rangers Ballpark, but it is 2-8 in his last 10 outings against winning teams and 0-4 in his last four Friday efforts.

Millwood is 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.21 ERA in four outings last season. Texas has dropped six of his last eight starts against L.A.

The under is 5-2-1 in Saunders’ last eight road starts, 4-0 in his last four against the A.L. West and 5-2-1 in his last eight on Friday, but the Angels have topped the total in five of his last seven starts versus Texas. Meanwhile, with Millwood pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 13-3-2 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 5-0 on Friday and 4-1 when he faces the Angels.

The under is 6-1 in L.A.’s last seven overall (all against right-handed starters), while Texas sports “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 6-2 at home and 6-1 in series openers.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

ecrazul1977 · May 15, 2009

John Fina Free Pick

Selection: Texas Rangers (-115)

ecrazul1977 · May 15, 2009

Brian Marshall Free Pick

Cincinnati Reds (-125)

ecrazul1977 · May 15, 2009

Tony Mathew Free Pick

St. Louis Cardinals (-110)

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

charlie

mlb. reds @ san diego under 8 runs (500*).
mlb. washington+105 (30*)
mlb. florida-130 (20*)
mlb. yankees-130 (20*)
mlb. white sox+115 (10*)
mlb. cincinnati-120 (10*) Bonus Play

Can'tPickaWinner2 · May 15, 2009

Seabass horses

Pimlico 5-15

Race 3- #4 Orchestrated & #5 Malibu kate

Race 5- #3 Ahvee's Destiny & #6 Libor Lady

Race 8- #6 Hero's reward

Race 9- #6 Mysterious Bandit